Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming, M. Watkins and M. Bazerman, HBR reprint R0303E, March 2003, Harvard Business Review.
Watkins and Bazerman posit that all the information you need to predict what would happen is already there for you to use. Three failures of recognition, prioritization, and mobilization are the cause. What's behind these failures are psychological barriers, organizational barriers, and political barriers. Scenario planning and risk analysis are the key disciplines to head off those Predictable Surprises.
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